Republican Share of Early Ballots Surges in California Primary, Raising Concerns Among Democrats
The California Secretary of State’s office has released its latest report on early ballot returns for the June primary election, revealing a notable shift in voter turnout patterns that is drawing attention from both parties. The data shows a significant increase in Republican
Participation compared to previous cycles, while Democratic turnout has declined.
Republicans now account for 34 percent of early ballot returns, an 8 percent increase from 2022. Democrats represent 41 percent, a 7 percent decrease from the previous comparable period.
Independents make up 25 percent, up 2 percent from 2022. Overall, the Republican share of early voters is running more than 9 percent above their share of voter registration.
The trends are particularly pronounced among older voters, who
Traditionally vote early. Data shows 4. 3 percent of people aged 65 and older have already voted, compared to 2 percent for ages 50 to 64, 1. 1 percent for ages 35 to 49, and 0. 7 percent for ages 18 to 34. By race, white voters lead at 2. 6 percent, followed by Asian voters at 2. 3 percent, Black voters at 1. 6 percent, and Latino voters at 1. 2 percent.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, described the numbers as encouraging for conservatives but cautioned against over-interpreting them at this early stage.
“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” DeMaio said.
Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc. noted that early voting
Patterns do not always hold through Election Day.
“The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” Mitchell said.
He pointed out that older, conservative voters and landlords tend to vote early, while some groups, including older Latinos, often wait to vote in person.
The primary is a “jungle” primary system, in which the top two
Vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
This has created anxiety on both sides about failing to make the November runoff. For the governor’s race, prominent Democrats include former U. S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter. Recent weeks have seen increased negativity from San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
On the Republican side, Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, appears to hold a strong lead in the race for Riverside County sheriff against Chad Bianco. Most polls show Becerra and Hilton as the most likely candidates to advance from the primary.
The surge in Republican early voting has sparked concern among
Democrats in a state that has long been a Democratic stronghold. Analysts note that while early voting trends provide an early signal, final turnout and results can shift as more ballots are cast closer to Election Day.
The June primary is drawing heightened national interest as both parties prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome could influence the balance of power in California’s congressional delegation and set the tone for the gubernatorial contest.