For decades, Israeli military and intelligence agencies have warned of the potential threat posed by a nuclear-capable Iran. The specter of a nuclear-armed neighbor has influenced Israel’s defense strategy, diplomatic priorities, and covert operations for more than twenty years. Diplomacy, targeted strikes, cyber operations, and intelligence-gathering were all employed to slow what Israeli officials considered an existential threat. The resulting offensive is now being recognized as the most significant Israeli military campaign since the nation’s founding.
Entering its fourth week, the operation has transformed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and caused thousands of casualties throughout the region. This report examines the events, motivations, and consequences of the ongoing campaign.
Background: From Containment to Direct Action Months of careful planning preceded the February 28 offensive. Following the twelve-day conflict of June 2025 – during which Israeli and U. S. forces struck and significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – intelligence agencies continued to monitor Iran’s efforts to rebuild missile capabilities and stockpile enriched uranium.
By late 2025, Israeli military intelligence concluded that Iran was nearing a nuclear capability that would be increasingly difficult to counter. Compounding these concerns, a popular uprising erupted in Iran in January 2026, only to be violently suppressed by the government.
For Israeli planners, this represented a rare strategic opportunity: Iran was internally weakened, and its regional influence appeared temporarily diminished.
The February 28 Strike: Planning and Execution Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly informed U. S. President Donald Trump on February 23 of the timing and location of a high-level Iranian leadership meeting, which included Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Intelligence was precise, actionable, and timely. Within days, both governments authorized a coordinated offensive. On the night of February 28, Israel launched a complex, synchronized air operation alongside American forces, known in U. S. military channels as Operation Epic Fury.
The initial wave of strikes targeted dozens of sites across northern Iran, including missile storage facilities, air defense installations, command centers, and leadership compounds. Iran confirmed his death on March 1. Khamenei had led Iran since 1989, succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
His assassination sent shockwaves through Iran, the Middle East, and the international community. Survivors within Iran’s leadership reportedly feared further targeted eliminations and a systematic dismantling of the Islamic Republic.
Expansion of the Offensive. In the days following the opening strikes, Israel intensified operations across the country. Military and civilian infrastructure alike were targeted.
Oil storage depots in Tehran – including Aghdasieh, Shahran, and the Tehran refinery – were bombed, igniting fires that burned for days.
Iran’s Deputy Health Minister warned of environmental hazards, including soil contamination, respiratory damage, and acid rain, though Israel maintained the strikes targeted facilities supplying energy to military operations.
Independent monitoring projects documented over 2,300 strikes in at least 29 of Iran’s 31 provinces.
Key targets included the South Pars gas field and facilities on Kharg Island, both vital to Iran’s energy sector. These attacks contributed to a sharp rise in global oil and gas prices and triggered retaliatory strikes on neighboring Gulf states.
Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program Israel also focused on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the Natanz enrichment complex, a central hub in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran responded with missile strikes on Dimona, near Israel’s own nuclear research site, heightening fears of escalation between nuclear-capable adversaries.
Israel’s statements emphasized establishing air superiority, signaling an intent not just to strike, but to degrade Iran’s ability to respond from the air. Officials publicly framed their strategy as